Penny Shares Guide

The shares of Cove Energy (“COV”) present an interesting buying opportunity for the right investor. Clearly a speculative play, there reward potential is high, but significant volatility should be expected. The fundamental factors on the company are mixed, although intangibles are strong, and the technical picture offers some interesting insights. Overall, within the speculative space, COV is an attractive buy, but should not be a core holding of any but the most aggressive portfolios.

Fundamentally, the company’s interest in various wells coupled with the fact that it has already raised the capital needed to fund its current-year drilling is encouraging. The strategic locations of the wells – from offshore in Mozambique to Rovuma and Mnazi Bay – places them is well-diversified and potential critical areas. The strategic partnerships the company has developed, primarily with Anadarko, provides further evidence that COV is positioned to succeed. Lastly, the experience of the two top executives, one from Shell and one from Petrocelic international, are key. The pressures facing speculative plays like this require the skill of a stable hand at the helm.

Technically, the recent spike drove the stock into a severally overbought condition, but this has eased. What is particularly encouraging is that the stock was able to correct this condition without a massive sell-off in the stock. After spiking above 40, the shares have eased to 38. The corresponding decline in overbought readings has been more significant. Essentially the stock is well positioned to build on its own momentum and run significantly higher with the right catalyst. The stock is still significantly above its 50-day moving average, so potentially buyers should watch this relationship. Any close significantly below this moving average should be perceived as negative.

In general, the story supporting this stock, coupled with fundamental and technical factors, make it an attractive speculative bet with a solid risk to return profile.

Oil and Africa, Worth a Pun–in the Shape of Afren? Natural resources and Africa continue to be the two themes for investors of the new decade for me. Oil, the black gold and Africa, the dark continent are an interesting pun to some.  But for a company called Afren, an African independent oil and gas company, founded in 2004 with £1m from family and friends and currently listed on the Main Board of the LSE, it’s all about its big ambition to be the world premier African oil producer and explorer. Afren is not just living for the present; it’s looking years ahead.

Afren lost $37 million after tax in the first half of 2008, but rich in cash, it repaid $26 million of debt and bought into a few very intriguing oil fields. The company has 16 oil assets in Nigeria, Cabon, Congo, Cote d’Ivoire, and Ghana. They suck out 27,000 barrels of oil a day. Afren’s share price has gone up 6 times since March last year. With shares trading at 103.75p as of 22/1/2010 and 889.07m shares in circulation, the company has a market cap of £922.40m. Its current EPS is -9.68 and P/E ratio -10.71. But analysts predict revenue to be £441m for the coming year.

Afren’s biggest share value is probably in the Gulf of Guinea, the top oil hot spot. But such an investment is not without risks. Also, as Afren has already gone up, is it a bit late to the game for investors? Still, oil will be in big demand, when the recession is a history. And the young Afren could eventually realize its mission as Africa’s top oil company, because of all the untapped bonanza of black gold. Remember, Oil’s Well That Ends Well.

I have a habit of watching the oil AIM shares, for two reasons.  The first is I have friends in the industry, as my wife trained as a Geologist, and I got to know many of them at Aston University.

I spotted this in the news and it hit a spot.

uk.reuters article

This company, 4 months or so ago, were dropping like a stone as they were not achiving the drill speed they had expected.  The suspicious investor could think that it was a sign they were up against the wall, and were unlikely to hit gas at any time in the future.  (Or at least while their funds were still available).

It seems (and I can only say in retrospect) that they have hit gas, and so the business can grow some more.  There are some interesting comments on the LSE board if you use it.

If anyone has any other companies like this, it would be good to hear.